New analysis on the impact of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit has spelled out the cost to Sussex residents.
A ‘no deal’ Brexit could see up to 20,000 people in Sussex lose their jobs, research by the UK Trade Policy Observatory has warned.
This comes as the Bank of England warned today (November 28) that the UK economy could shrink by eight per cent in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
The paper, 'The Brexit Burden: A Constituency Level Analysis for Hampshire and Sussex’, was published last week by The UK Trade Policy Observatory at the University of Sussex, and is based on research by Dr Ilona Serwicka and Professor L. Alan Winters.
Dr Serwicka, a research fellow in the Economics of Brexit at the University of Sussex, said: “This research makes very clear that both soft and hard forms of Brexit, but in particular, a ‘no deal’ Brexit, are likely to have a negative impact on the lives of many residents in Hampshire and Sussex.
"Of course, we cannot say for certain that this number of job losses will definitely happen, as employers may choose to reduce number of hours and wages rather than cut workforce. But this analysis gives some indication of which places in our region may be most vulnerable to Brexit.”
This comes as Brighton and Hove City Council leader Daniel Yates warned that councils are 'operating in the dark’ amid Brexit and funding uncertainty.
He said the research showed 4,000 jobs would be lost in Brighton and Hove alone in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
Brighton Pavilion is expected to be among the hardest hit, the research said, with job losses in excess of 1,600, while Brighton Kemptown and Worthing West could be set to lose a larger share of their total employment (3.5 to 3.6 per cent).
L. Alan Winters, Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory, said: “As constituency MPs in Sussex and Hampshire vote on the Withdrawal Agreement next month, they will have very difficult decisions to make knowing that the livelihoods of hundreds of their constituents will rest in their hands.”
The majority of job losses, around 11,000, will be in professional, real estate and other business services, the research said, with Crawley the hardest hit within this sector.
There will also be sizeable employment loss in Brighton Pavilion in the information, communication, financial and insurance sectors, according to the report..
It added that the impact will be felt most strongly in the South East because the region is the most heavily engaged in cross-border trade – exporting £45.3bn worth of goods last year (and £39.2bn worth of services in 2016) - with nearly a half of these exports destined for the EU.
This large value of cross-border trade, with high exposure to trade with the EU, means that a ‘no deal’ Brexit could be particularly disruptive to the South East’s economy, the report said.
To read the report in full, visit: blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/publications/the-brexit-burden-a-constituency-level-analysis-for-hampshire-and-sussex/